回归模型在贵州地理要素分析中的应用

Regression model in analysis of geography factor in Guizhou Province

探讨了一元地理回归模型的建立及其检验.首先建立贵州省88个县域的海拔与积温之间的线性回归模型,阐明贵州地势西高东低及积温东高西低的变化趋势.其次通过非农产业产值与人均GDP的曲线回归模型的建立,及相关系数的计算,揭示贵州县域GDP的增长要依靠提高非农产业产值比例.最后提出地形坡度是影响和制约贵州各地人口疏密分布及各地土地垦殖率高低差异的一个基本因素的论点,并通过相关分析与回归模型予以证实.

For eighty-eight counties in Guizhou Province, some geography regression models are discussed. At first, a linear regression model between altitudes and accumulated temperatures of these counties is established. The model shows that the accumulated temperaturs are higher in the east than the west because of hypsography. Secondly, nonlinear regression model between production value of nonagricultural industries and the GDP per capita is set up. And the correlation parameter is computed. The results reveal that only by improving the proportion of nonagricultural industries production value can we improve the GDP of counties in Guizhou Province. Finally, by analysing correlation and regression ,we prove that terrain and slope are the fundamental factors infecting and restricting distribu- tion of population and rate of cultivated land.