现金利润在企业财务困境预警中的应用

Application of Cash Profit for Enterprise's Financial Distress Forecast

借助财务指标对企业未来出现财务困境的可能性进行预测的关键是如何提高预测的精度。本文以现金流量的信息内涵——现金利润为基础,重新搭建了财务评价指标体系,并以此作为界定困境企业的主要标准,利用逻辑回归方法分别搭建了以现金利润为基础和以传统会计利润为基础的两套预警模型,并运用实证方法对模型的预测效果进行了比较分析。实证结果表明:以现金利润为基础的预警模型在预测效果上优于以会计利润基础的模型。

Based on the cash profit which is the information content of cash flow, this paper establishes the financial evaluation index system which is taken as the main criteria to define the finaneial position of companies. And it uses the logical regression methods to set up two earlywarning models based on cash profit and traditional accounting profit separately,and compares the forecasting effects of these two models by the empirical methods. Empirical results show that the forecasting effects of the model based on cash profit are superior to that based on traditional accounting profit.