黄芩分布区主要气候要素变化趋势时空特征分析

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Main Climate Processes Change Trend over Distribution Area of Scutellaria baicalensis

基于国内黄芩主要分布区确定的研究区内94个气象站点的气象观测数据,运用非参数统计检验Mann-Kendall、R/S等分析方法,分析了研究区1957-2007年气温、降水量和日照时数变化趋势的时空特征。结果表明:近50a来,研究区气温表现出显著的上升趋势,降水量、日照时数呈现出减少趋势,日照时数的变化趋势通过了0.01水平的显著性检验;Hurst指数分析表明,研究区未来气温、日照时数都表现出很强的持续性,即与过去近50a的变化趋势基本保持一致,降水量在东北段的减少持续性很强,华北段和西北段变化的持续性相对较弱;研究区气温、降水量、日照时数的变化趋势在空间分布上存在着一定的区域差异。

On the basis of the mean annual air temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration of 94 meteorological stations over the distribution areas of Scutellaria baicalensis from 1957 to 2007, the temporal and spatial characteristics of main climate processes change trend was analyzed, by using the nonparametric statistical Mann-Kendall method and R/S method. The results showed that there was a obvious increasing trend of mean annual air temperature during the last 50 years. The mean annual precipitation and sunshine duration exhibited a decreasing trend, the latter arrived at a = 0.01 statistically significant level. The Hurst index showed that mean annual air temperature and sunshine duration would appear increasing and decreasing trend respectively, in the future over the whole research region. As to precipitation, the consistent decreasing trend was strong in the Northeast China, while it was weak pattern in the Northwest and North China. The trends of air temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration changes exhibited spatial variations over the research regions.