基于组合电力负荷预测模型的电力经济调度研究

Research on Power Economic Dispatch Based on Model of Combination Forecasting of Power Load

根据武汉地区近10 a电力负荷使用情况对武汉供电公司电力负荷预测进行研究,以此为经济调度及负荷管理提供依据.选用基于GM(1,1)模型和一元线性回归法的组合负荷预测模型,对武汉地区每月最大负荷进行预测;算例证明组合预测模型有效提高了电力系统负荷预测能力,且证明了该组合电力预测模型对发电量预测同样具有可行性.

In this paper, a research on power load of the power supply company of Wuhan is done to provide a basis for economic dispatch and load management of the power supply company of Wuhan based on records of the use of electric load in the past decade in wuhan. Monthly peak load in Wuhan is forecasted by a method based on gray theory and a linear regression method of load forecasting model. Examples prove that this combination forecasting model can effectively improve accuracy and reliability of power load forecasting and this model can be equally applied to the electricity generating capacity forecast.