基于贝叶斯理论的指挥引导决策研究

Study on command guidance decision based on Bayesian theory

为提高对战场态势判断的准确性,从而提升指挥引导战斗机的效率,提出运用贝叶斯方法对敌机态势进行估计的方法。首先介绍了贝叶斯决策的基本原理、基于最小错误率的贝叶斯决策规则,以及基于最小风险的贝叶斯决策规则。其次,对两种决策规则分别进行仿真,在情况不明的状态下,可以得到比较合理的决策结果。最后说明了在判明战场态势的情况下如何进行指挥引导解算。

In order to improve the precision of battlefield situation analysis and then improve the efficiency of command guidance of battle plan, the paper presents application of Bayesian method to analysis the situation of enemy. Firstly, the basal theory of Bayesian decision and Bayesian decision rules based on least error and least risk were introduced. Then , we made simulations for the two decision rules. The results of decision are logical when instance is intangibly. Finally ,the measure to resolve command guidance when have ascertained the battlefield situation is introduced.