增值税转型对地方财政收入的影响——基于对东北三省的实证研究

On the Effect of VAT Transformation on Local Government Revenue

我国自2004年7月1日起在东北地区8个行业进行的增值税转型改革试点已经取得了一定的成效,以此次转型为例,定量分析增值税转型对地方财政收入的影响,结果表明:短期内增值税转型政策会给财政收入带来减收的影响,但影响并不大;Granger因果检验结果表明不但当期增值税对财政收入有一定的影响,而且滞后一定期数的增值税也对财政收入的变化有所影响,另外,财政收入的变化也会影响增值税的变化;误差修正模型表明增值税与财政收入之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。

Since 1 July,2004,the Chinese government has been positively propelling the reform of VAT transformation and has already made some effects in Northeast China.By exploring the impact of VAT transformation on the local government revenue by means of empirical analysis,we can find that in the short run,the transformation will bring about a trivial reduction of the local government revenue.Granger causality test implies that VAT transformation has lagged impacts on the government revenue.At the same time,the increase of government revenue may also lead to the change of the value-added taxation revenue. Error Correction Model indicates that there exists stable and long-term equilibrium between value-added tax and financial revenue.