我国应对美国金融危机的货币政策实施效果评价

Assessment and Suggestions about China′s Monetary Policy Responding to US Financial Crisis

为了应对美国金融危机对中国经济的影响,2008年9月15日至年底的三个多月里,央行一年期存款基准利率累计下调1.89个百分点、一年期贷款基准利率累计下调2.16个百分点、4次下调金融机构人民币存款准备金率等一揽子扩张性货币政策密集出台,对冲了2007-2008年上半年抑制经济过热的货币政策的时滞影响和金融危机的冲击,使中国经济在2009年第二季度出现了复苏的好势头。但是2009年一、二季度货币供应量对GDP的影响效应仅占正常经济情况下的32%左右,说明大量信贷资金为了获取利润进入了股市和楼市等,对实体经济作用效应较弱。为进一步稳固经济企稳回升发展的基础,结合中国现阶段经济发展面临的问题,建议央行下半年坚持适度宽松的货币政策,用信贷的适度增量强化结构调整的力度,引导资金进入实体经济,防范金融风险和通胀发生。

To respond to the influences of the US financial crisis on China＇s economy, in a period of more than three months from September 15th to the end of 2008, an incessant release of a package of expansion monetary policies, such as the one-year benchmark deposit rate of the central bank decreased accumulatively 1.89 percent points, one-year benchmark lending rate decreased accumulatively 2.16 percent points, and the RMB deposit-reserve ratio of the financial institutions, has buffered the time lag effect of the monetary policies for suppressing the economic overheat over the period from 2007 to the first half of 2008, resulting in that a good momentum of economic recovery for China＇s economy occurred in the second quarter of 2009. However, the influential effect of money supply on GDP in the first two quarters of 2009 is only about 32% of that under normal economic conditions, indicating that a large amount of credit funds have entered into the stock and real estate markets for profits and imposed on a weaker impact on real economy. In order to stabilize a solid basis for economic development, and in combination with the problems faced by China＇s economical development at the present state, it is suggested that, in the second half of this year, the central bank should adhere to the ＂moderately loose＂ monetary policy, increase the force for economic restructuring with a moderate increase in financial credit, guide the investment funds into the real economy, and prevent from financial risks and inflation.