贸易自由化、要素分布和制造业集聚

Trade Accessibility,Factor Distribution and Agglomeration:A Case of China

本文在新经济地理学的框架下建立一个包含三区域、两部门、三种生产要素的空间均衡模型,以此分析要素分布与制造业空间分布的关系及要素密集度对制造业集聚的影响。主要结论是:(1)资本密集度的增加促进制造业集聚,并且在一个较大的市场,贸易成本更低时,资本的集聚倾向大于劳动力的集聚倾向,反之则资本的集聚程度低于劳动力的集聚程度;(2)当拥有更大市场的沿海的外贸优势非常大时,国内区域间贸易壁垒对东部的制造业集聚不构成影响。规模报酬递增,国内市场一体化,以及工业中资本密集度的提高,会进一步促进东部的制造业集聚,而国际贸易自由化,中国对外开放程度的提高有利于要素和制造业的平衡分布;(3)潜力巨大的国内消费市场,是中国贸易和产业发展比较优势的新的源泉,也是在复杂多变的国际经济形势下稳健发展的坚强后盾。

This paper studies a three-region, two-sector spatial equilibrium model where manufacturing sector utilizes an increasing returns to scale Cobb-Douglas function with two factors（ capital and labor）to produce differentiated goods, to investigate the effect of factor intensity on agglomeration behavior in the context of the new economic geography. The main results are： （i）a rise in capital intensity stimulates agglomeration in the economy, and the extent of capital and industry concentration is more than labor concentration when trade costs are sufficiently low, and vice versa; （ii）when the coast has a sufficiently strong advantage in international trade and hosts a larger number of consumers, it definitely becomes the location for industrial agglomeration even though the domestic transport costs are very high, and its leadership strengthened by the positive feedback mechanism from increasing returns to scale; （iii）given China＇s huge market potential and increasing trade accessibility, the home market effect can, therefore, be generalized in a strict ceteris paribus sense.