中国特色的低碳经济、能源、电力之路初探

Study on the Pattern of China Low-Carbon Economy

中国作为发展中大国,探索一条适合我国国情的低碳经济-能源-电力的发展路径是至关重要的。在过去30年中,我国在节能方面取得了巨大成就,可以概括为具有中国特色的能源使用管理,它是低碳能源的重要组成部分。综合资源战略规划与智能电网构成低碳电力。它们将在中国的低碳经济中发挥重要作用。本文结合中国国情,在低碳经济(低碳能源与低碳电力)的模型基础上,展望了未来20年我国经济发展前景、能源的需求、能源消费结构、非化石能源的比重、能耗-电耗水平、CO2排放强度,以及经济发展对电力的需求、电源的结构、清洁能源的发电比重,能效电厂及其发电量(终端电力用户节约的电量)等,分析了今后发展应关注的问题。

As the biggest developing country, it is very important for China to explore a special way of Low-Carbon Economy. By the successful experience of energy saving in the past 30 years in China, it can be summarized as Energy Usage Management （EUM）. It is an important part of Low-Carbon Energy in China. Integrated Resource Strategic Planning （IRSP） and Smart Grid consist of Low-Carbon Electricity. Both EUS and IRSP will play an important role in Low-Carbon Economy of China. Based on the model of Low-Carbon Economy with Low-Carbon Energy and Low-Carbon Electricity, the outlook on economy-energy-electricityenvironment of China has been studied in the paner.