评美国新阿富汗战略

A Valuation of the US Afghanistan Strategy

奥巴马在就任美国总统后两个月的时间里就宣布了对阿富汗新战略,这也是奥巴马政府推出的第一个战略文件。新战略是奥巴马政府试图打破阿富汗困境的尝试,它在目标设置、手段选择、资源配置上都与上届政府有不同的思路和政策。新战略是根据7年多阿富汗战争的经验教训制定的,比较贴近实际,有很强的针对性,它应能取得某种正面效果。但是,新战略也存在一系列不确定因素和弱点。总的来说,新战略主要还是"技术性"的,而阿富汗危机具有深刻的政治原因,技术性手段可以控制但难以解决政治性问题。在一定意义上,新战略是撤出战略的前奏,它可能导致美国从阿富汗战场前线的撤出。

Just after his inauguration as the US President, Obama announced a new strategy for Afghanistan only within two months; it is the first strategic document of Obama＇s administration. It is an attempt for Obama to break the US plight in Afghanistan with many different ideas and policies compared with the Bush Administration. Based on more than seven-year experience and lessons from the war in Afghanistan, the new strategy is practical and well-targeted and is expected to get some positive effects. However, there are also a series of uncertain and weak factors in this new strategy. Generally speaking, it is relayed on ＂technicality,＂ and Afghanistan is involving a profound crisis with political reasons which can be controlled but is difficult to be solved by technical means. In a certain sense, the new strategy is a prelude to the withdraw of US troops.