中日资源与环境技术预见比较研究

A Comparative Study on Resource and Environment Technology Foresight in China and Japan

近年来,技术预见研究成为国际热点。当前,在我国开展技术预见研究,不仅是参与国际竞争和建设创新型国家的需要,而且是国家制定科技发展战略和科技政策的重要基础。对中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目"中国未来20年技术预见研究"中资源与环境技术领域的德尔菲调查进行了概要介绍,并与日本第7次技术预见相关内容(包括子领域划分、课题数量分布、重要程度综合得分前10位课题分布、技术预见活动问卷发放和回函情况等)进行了比较研究,并得出了一些初步结论。

Technology foresight study is becoming the hot spot of research in the past few years. Technology foresight study is currently necessary in the participation of China in international competition and construction of the innovative country ,but also is the important basis of the government formulating science and technology development strategies and policies. This paper gives brief introduction of the Delphi survey in resource and environment technology whieh is the sub-project belonging to the project of technology foresight research until 2020 in China. The results of resource and environment technology foresight （such as sub-fields,number of topics,top 10 topics in terms of integrated index of importance,questionnaire distribution and recovery ,et al.）were compared with the 7th technology foresight in Japan in 2001. Some primary conclusions are drawn finally.