中国转型期城市空间规模的决定因素——统一的单中心城市模型的理论研究与实证

The Determinants of Spatial Scales of Cities during the Transition Period in China:A Theoretical and Empirical Study on a Consolidated Monocentric-city Model

文章根据城市土地经济学原理、结合我国城市特点构建了兼有"封闭"和"开放"特征的单中心城市模型,并发展了经典单中心城市模型的比较静态分析。文章提出的本地性均衡概念弥补了现有理论的不足,有助于揭示城市户籍人口和农村流动人口在城市的就业和居住模式以及城市用地特征。对中国630多个城市2003-2007年数据的计量分析显示,我国城市用地规模差异的88%可以被模型所解释。特别地,政府规划中较少考虑的城市收入、市内交通条件、流动人口对现阶段我国城市规模有显著影响。计量分析结果还表明,在控制了上述所有经济因素后,行政级别高的城市以及中西部地区城市使用了更多的土地。

Based on the economic theories about urban land and the characteristics of cities in China, the paper constructs a monocentric-city model with the features of closeness and openness, develops the comparative statistic analysis of the classic monocentric-city model. The local equilibrium raised by the paper provides a supplementation for current related theories and is beneficial to reveal the employment and residential patterns of urban domicile population and rural floating population in urban areas and the char- acteristics of urban land use. Through econometric analysis of the data of o- ver 630 cities from 2003 to 2007, the consolidated monocentric-city model can explain 88% of the difference degree of urban land use scales. Especial- ly, factors such as the income, transport condition and floating population in cities which are seldom considered by governments ~ plans have significant effects on the scales of cities at present. It also finds that after all the factors above are controlled, the cities with higher administrative grades and the ones in central and western areas tend to be allocated with more land.