低生育率时代的中国生育政策调整——基于对低生育率社会经济负效应的分析

China's Fertility Policy Adjustment in Low Fertility Rate Time:Based on an Analysis of the Socio-economic Negative Effects of Low Fertility Rate

我国在20世纪90年代已经进入低生育水平时代,近十年来不少地区甚至出现了超低生育率现象。旨在"封顶"、"权宜之计"的生育政策却沿用至今,在人口安全、人口老龄化、劳动力就业、家庭规模、独生子女、性别比以及城乡分化等方面产生了大量负面效应。考虑到人口自然增长的惯性和周期性特征,有计划、有步骤地放宽生育政策应成为当前生育政策调整的方向。

In the 1980＇s China began to enter into a low fertility rate time, and in the past decade, the phenomenon of ultra-low fertility rate emerged in many areas. The fertility policy aimed at ＂capping＂ and ＂quick fixes＂ has been adopted so far, which generates a lot of negative effects on such aspects as popula- tion security, population aging, labor force employment, family size, only-child, sex ratio, rural-urban division, etc. Taking into account the inertia and cyclical characteristics of natural population growth, this paper proposes that relaxing the fertility policy with measured paces should be the direction of the current fertility policy adjustment.