人口增长能拉动消费吗?——模型及广东的实证分析

Increasing the Consumption by the Population Growth?——Model and Analysis of Guangdong

考虑到人口在社会总消费中的特殊作用,在凯恩斯和新古典理论框架下的各主要经典消费函数理论模型中,引入人口年龄结构变量,对广东城乡居民的消费函数进行实证检验,并对广东居民的总消费进行预测。研究发现,尽管居民的消费倾向较高,但居民消费率在国民经济发展中所占比重偏低,人口增长对消费拉动效应不显著。

Taking into consideration the special effect of population on the total consumption of the society, this paper introduces the variables of the structure of age from a series of famous consumption function theories and models under the framework of Keynes and neoclassicism. The paper also inspects the consumption function of the urban and rural residents in Guangdong Province with substantial evidence and makes the forecast for its general consumption. The study shows that the population growth has not had the obvious effect on boosting the consumption and the consumption rate is low.