通往郊区的轨道交通线路客流预测方法

Passenger Flow Forecast for Rail Transit Lines Extended to Suburb

我国正处于城市化进程高速发展阶段,各城市相继建设通往城市郊区的轨道交通线路,分析其客流预测中的常见问题,包括未建成区客流调查困难、规划资料简单、不确定因素多且难以判断和把握等;根据实践经验,提出对所在区域特点和规律进行城市经济发展分析的宏观思路和采用对比方法把握线路具体客流特征的微观思路。

Urban rail transit lines have been at large extended to suburban areas in China. This paper addresses the common issues of the passenger flow forecast of these lines. These include the difficulties in passenger flow investigation for the area with lines under construction, poor planning data, and many unpredictable factors and so on. According to the experience of practice, it is recommended the macro-line mode of thinking be adopted to analyze the features and laws of economic development of the region and the micro-line mode of thinking be adopted to grasp the passenger flow characteristics of rail lines by method of comparison.