蒙德法定量安全评价的误差分析与参数选择

Parameter selection and error analysis in quantitative safety evaluation using Mond method

为分析与讨论蒙德法(Mond)优缺点、评价精度及适应性,对参数取值的主观偏差影响、参数选取的合理性、对蒙德法中燃烧热的温度、单元中重要物质选取、混合物质影响以及Mond法算法误差传递进行了研究,采用误差传递法对偏差的传递进行了理论分析与论证。结果表明蒙德法中燃烧热、重要物质选取、混合物质等参数选取是合理的,同时阐明了偏差传递过程及对评价结果的影响;最后针对具体问题提出了建议和解决办法,如改进计算模型和量化参数取值等。

In order to understand the merits,evaluation precision and adaptability of Mond method in quantitative safety evaluation,this study investigates the subjective deviation and the rationality of the parameter selection,the temperature effect on combustion heat,the key material selection,the effect of mixed materials and the error propagation in Mond algorithm.The results show that it is rational in Mond method for the parameter selection including combustion heat,primary components and mixed component.Finally,the paper proposes a few improvements on the computational model and the quantification parameter selection.