1985—2005年我国大学生体质综合发展水平的灰评估与灰关联研究

The Grey Assessment and Grey Relational of the Integrated Development Level of College Students' Corporeity in China from 1985 to 2005

应用灰色系统理论的灰评估模型和灰关联模型对1985—2005年间我国大学生的体质综合发展水平进行灰评估和灰关联分析,为我国学校体育卫生的宏观决策工作提供科学依据。研究结果表明:(1)1985—2005年,大学生的体质综合发展水平排序,由好到差依次是1995年>1991年>1985年>2000年>2005年。2005年大学生身体素质特别是耐力素质普遍下降是体质综合发展水平等级最低的主要原因。(2)社会环境因素对我国大学生的体质综合发展水平的影响很密切,影响程度由强到弱依次是医疗卫生因素>教育因素>经济因素,其中大学生体质综合发展水平不是随着经济发展水平的提高而无限增长,而是当达到一定水平后会回落到一个平缓阶段。

The integrated development level of college students＇ corporeity from 1985 to 2005 was analyzed by grey assessment and grey relational models from grey system theory to provide a scientific basis for the macroscopic decision on scholastic sports sanitation in China. The results showed that： （1） From 1985 to 2005, the order from the best to the worst of the integrated development level of eollege students＇ corporeity was 1995〉1991〉1985〉2000〉2005. In 2005, the integrated development level of college students＇ corporeity was at the lowest level and the main reason was that the body diathesis especially the endurance diathesis generally declined. （2） Social environmental factors intimately affect the integrated development level of college students＇ corporeity in China, the impact order from strongest to weakest was medical and health factors〉education factors〉economic factors. The growth of the integrated development level of college students＇ eorporeity is not unlimited with the enhancement of economic development level. When it reaches a certain level and then it will decease to a moderate stage.