克孜尔水库上游流域蓄水前后降水变化特征

Precipitation Characteristics in Upper Reaches of Kezi'er Reservoir

分析拜城气象站1959—2006年降水资料发现,降水量以15.7mm/10a速率增加,新疆克孜尔水库1991年水库建成蓄水后其上游流域的年降水、主汛期降水、冬季降水和夏季降水均显著增加,雨日及中雨以上日数、年最大连续降水日数和年过程最大降水量也呈显著的线性增加趋势,过程最大降水量、日最大降水量、雨日平均降水强度等均增加,而年最大连续无降水日数呈显著的线性下降趋势。上述降水特征量的变化对流域水资源的合理利用、水库科学调度安全运行等提出了新的挑战。

We compared the precipitation data of Baicheng weather station before and after the Kezi＇er Reservoir reconstruction and found that： The precipitation enhanced at the rate of 15.7mm/ 10a, precipitation of annual total, major flood period, summer and winter increased obviously; rainy days, medium precipitation days, annual maximum continuous precipitation days and annual maximum process precipitation also increased; maximum of process precipitation and daily precipitation, average intensity of rainy-day increased as well. However, days of annual maximum without rainfall decreased linearly. The precipitation changes mentioned above not only affect using water resource reasonably but also raise big challenge to run the reservoir safely.