关于利率政策对国际收支影响传导机制的研究

A study on the transmission mechanism of interest rate policy on balance of payments

该文首先从理论分析的角度,探讨了利率政策影响国际收支的直接传导和间接传导路径,并通过实证分析的方法,分析了利率传导路径的有效性。结果表明,利率对国际收支传导的直接渠道和间接渠道基本有效,利率升高一方面通过直接渠道促进短期资本流入和外债的增加,促进国际收支顺差;另一方面通过间接渠道抑制进口,促进出口,进一步促进国际收支顺差。利率传导的直接和间接渠道分别表现为对国际收支顺差的短期和长期促进作用。

This paper theoretically discusses the direct and indirect transmission channels of interest rate policy to balance of payments, and empirically analyzes the effectiveness of interest rate transmission. According to the results, both the direct channel and indirect channel of interest rate transmission affect the balance of payments. On one hand, the interest rate rise could directly promote short-term capital inflow and foreign debts, and increase the balance of payments surplus; on the other, it could also use indirect channel to restrict imports and promote exports, and further increase balance of payments surplus. The direct and indirect channels can therefore be seen as short-term and long-term promotions, respectively, on balance of payments surplus.