感度的数理统计方法

SOME STATISTICAL METHODS FOR SENSITIVITY ASSESSMENT

在火炸药工程技术中,常要凭一种特殊形式的统计数据评定火炸药制品的感度。本文概述我们为改善和发展解决这一问题的统计方法近几年来所做的主要工作。分三个方面:(1)对于该领域的主要方法升降法,给出了修正的估值公式,以消除方法的系统误差;(2)提出了逐次调整设计参数的试验设计方法,以及与之配合的多组样本组合分析公式,保证以合理的试验量达到预定估值精度;(3)用平滑原理和数值最优化给出了一种分析感度数据的新方法。

Usually there is a need, in explosive technology, to assess the level of sensitivity of explosives on the basis of a special kind of statistical data. This paper describes our main works in recent years for developing reliable methods: (l)for the up-and-down method, a modified estimation formula to eliminate the systemetic error is given; (2) a procedure for designing up-and-down tests and analyzing overall samples combinatively to make estimates having required precision by a reasonable amount of tests is given; (3) a new method for analyzing sensitivity data, which is based on smoothing and numerical opti-mization techniques is proposed.