持续上升动力不足,下调风险加大——2010中国经济预测

Weak Sustained Rising Dynamics and Bigger Risks of Downgrading A Forecast of Chinese Economy in 2010

本文采用奥地利学派商业周期的理论框架,解释我国宏观经济波动的原因,从外部环境、宏观调控政策导向以及启动民间投资三个方面,分析了影响2010年宏观经济走势的因素,认为2010年我国经济持续上升动力不足,下调风险加大,政府刺激经济政策的操作空间缩小。本文预测2010年经济增长率为7.5%左右,CPI可控制在3%左右。

In this paper, Austrian business cycle theoretical framework, explaining this reason for China＇s macroeconomic fluctuations, from the external environment, the macro-control policy orientation, as well as encourage private investment in these three areas, which affect the trend of 2010, c factors that make analysis, this paper believes that China＇s economy in 2010 continued to rise not enough, increased the downside risk, policy space for economic stimulus narrowing. This article predicts that in 2010 economic growth rate was 7.5 %, CPI can be controlled at around 3%