黄河2360a.B.P古洪水流量推算误差分析

Error Analysis in Estimation of Discharge of 2 360 a. B. P Ancient Flood in the Yellow River

根据黄河小浪底河段所寻找到的2360a．BP古洪水流量的推求方法，进行了误差传播的推导；通过对计算环节中各因子的误差进行估算，得到了古洪水推算流量的误差范围：如果以砾石层顶作为冲刷控制，流量误差为13．64％；以Q4／Q3界面砾石层作为控制，以淤积面积的40．5％作为误差范围，则流量误差达15．54％。

Errors transmission is inferred in the paper based on the deduction method of 2 360 a. B. P ancient flood discharge researching in Xiaolangdi reaches in the Yellow River. The limits of error are obtained for ancient flood discharge estimation as follows through estimation of errors of every factors closely concerned in the calculation: 13.64 % of error if top of gravel layer is taking as control base; and 15. 54 % of error if gravel layer of Q4/Q3 boundary is taking as control base and the limit of error for sedimentation area is defined as 40. 5 %.