基于Copula函数的南水北调中线降水丰枯遭遇分析

Synchronous Asynchronous Encounter Probability of Rich Poor Precipitation between Water Source Area and Water Receiving Area Based on Copula Theory in Middle Route of South to North Water Transfer Project

针对南水北调中线工程水资源调度实况,按调度年、季两种时间尺度分别讨论了水源区和四个受水区降水的丰枯遭遇性,基于Copula函数构建了水源区与各受水区降水量的联合分布,计算了丰枯遭遇的概率,并对比分析了传统统计法与Copula函数法的优劣。结果表明,水源区和各受水区丰枯组合中对调水有利的概率均大于70%,调水效益由南向北逐渐增大;Copula函数法在计算条件概率及概率等值线图方面均优于统计法。

The synchronous asynchronous encounter probability in water source area and water receiving area is discussed in scheduling year, season precipitation is based on practical circumstance of optimal allocation of water resources in the mid route of South to North Project. Copula theory was applied to calculate the probability of synchronous asynchronous encounter. The results show that the probabilities of advantage in water transfer are all above 70%, and the benefit of water transfer increases from South to North.