基于SD的区域工业产业发展系统模拟

Regional Industrial Development System Modeling in Guangzhou Based on System Dynamics

针对区域工业产业发展系统运行规律及所具有的复杂和动态系统特征,运用系统动力学(SD)对其有效运行进行系统建模,对区域工业产业未来的发展变化趋势做出模拟预测,进而预见该系统在发展变化过程中可能出现的问题。探索一种定性及定量相结合的角度反映区域工业产业发展系统运行机制的方法,观测其行为特性,找到起主要作用的反馈回路和政策的杠杆作用点。广州市工业产业发展的实证分析表明,该方法为决策提供理论依据和指导。

Taking into consideration laws governing the regional industrial development system （RIDS） and its complicated and dynamic nature, we build a RIDS modeling based on system dynamics （SD） to predict the trend of regional industrial development, and problems arising from its development, and explore operating mechanisms of RIDS. Through this model, we will get a comprehensive solution to the industrial economic development. An empirical study of industrial industry development in Guangzhou indicates that this approach can offer theoretical foundation and guidance for decision-making.