人口变迁、人力资本与经济增长的理论与模型进展

A Review on Theories and Modeling Framework of Demographic Change, Human Capital and Economic Growth

30年来增长理论的重要贡献之一就是确立了人力资本在经济可持续增长中的内生作用。自1950年以来,世界各国正在进行大幅人口变迁,但其对人力资本形成和经济增长的作用却是近年来才受到关注。而有关多民族经济体中民族融合与人口变迁和经济增长的互动研究更是刚起步。对有关人口变迁、人力资本和经济增长关系的最新进展进行系统梳理,从而为后续研究提供一套初步的理论模型与计量框架。

In modem growth theories＇ almost three decades of evolvement, one of its most important eontributions has been to establish human capital as a key factor in promoting long-term economic growth. Since 1950s, countries across the world have been undergoing dramatic demographic changes. Only recently, however, the effect of such changes on human capital formation, and hence on economic growth has thus become a research focus. Moreover, for multi-minority economies, the research on the relationship among ethnic inclusion, demographic change and growth is still at its early stage. This paper takes a systematic review on the progress of the theories and modeling frameworks regarding the interactions between demographic changes, human capital and economic growth. It serves to provide a preliminary set of theoretical modeling and empirical framework for further research in this direction.