虚拟物流风险的RBF神经网络实证分析

A risk analysis of virtual logistics Based on the RBF neural network:An empirical study

在全球金融危机的冲击下,虚拟物流作为一种新型的物流运作模式显示出了其强大的生命力,因此而受到很多企业和学者的关注。但是,随着虚拟物流整合组织内外部各种资源,实现对市场的快速反映,给各企业带来众多好处的同时,新的虚拟物流风险发生的概率也就随着加大。本文针对虚拟物流风险的评价问题,利用群决策支持的AHP方法识别与评价影响虚拟物流风险的关键因子,最后在问卷调查的基础上,采取RBF神经网络分析虚拟物流风险,并进行实证,为虚拟物流风险管理提供了新的思路和手段。

Under the attack of global financial crisis, as a new modal of logistics operation, virtual logistics shows its strong vitality ; therefore it attracts the attention of many enterprises and scholars. But, as virtual logistics integrates and organizes the internal and external resources to reflect the market quickly, and meanwhile brings much benefit to the corporations, the occurrence probability of new virtual logistics risk increases accordingly. For the risk of virtual logistics issues, the Analytic Hierarchy Process（AHP） method supported by the group decision is employed to identify and evaluates the main factors influencing virtual logistics, finally, Radial Basis Function（RBF） neural network is used to forecast the risks among the virtual logistics enterprises on the basis of questionnaire survey, it provides new ideas and means for the virtual logistics risk management.