中美贸易顺差与人民币汇率的相关性实证分析——基于2005-2008年月度数据

Empirical Analysis of the relation between RMB’s Exchange Rate and China-USA Trade Surplus——based on monthly date from 2005 to 2008

文章通过建立人民币实际汇率模型和名义汇率模型分别研究两种汇率波动对中美贸易顺差的影响。通过基于向量自回归模型(VAR)的Johansen协整技术分析以及脉冲响应函数分析得出:在短期内,人民币升值对中美贸易顺差有一定影响,并且名义汇率对其影响程度大于实际汇率;在长期内影响中美贸易顺差扩大的主导因素是美国经济的增长。

As to research the influence of RMB＇s exchange rate to China-USA trade surplus ,RMB real effective exchange rate model and RMB normal exchange rate model would be built in the paper , through Johansen cointegration analysis and impulse response analysis based on VAR model, the paper finds that RMB appreciation causes effects on China.USA trade surplus to some extent in the short run and little effects in the long run ,more over, real exchange rate plays more effects than normal exchange rate; China-USA trade surplus mainly depended on USA economy development in the long run.