基于多元Copula函数的引滦水库径流丰枯补偿特性研究

Study of the Wetness-Dryness Compensation Characteristics of Luan River Diversion Reservoirs' Inflow Based on Multivariate Copula Functions

研究引滦水库的天然来水系列之间的丰枯补偿特性,以期优化滦河中下游水库群联合供水的调度及合理配置该区域水资源。通过运用三元Copula联结函数构造了潘家口水库、陡河水库和于桥水库年入库天然径流系列的三维联合分布,然后利用此联合分布计算了这3个水库年天然来水量丰枯遭遇的概率。结果表明,3个水库径流系列的丰枯同步概率高达46.96%,潘家口水库对陡河水库和于桥水库不具补偿能力的概率为30.2%;为保证天津、唐山等地的供水安全,必须加强引滦水库群的优化调度,充分发挥各个引滦水库的调蓄功能,以降低不利丰枯遭遇带来的影响。

Studying the compensation characteristics of the Luan River diversion reservoirs＇ inflow, has great significance to optimal operation of the reservoir＇s group in the middle and lower reaches of Luan River, and can provide scientific basis for the water resources rational allocation of this region. By using Copula functions, trivariate joint distribution was constructed among the natural inflow series of Panjiakou reservoir, Douhe reservoir and Yuqiao reservoir, and the probability of wetness-dryness that the natural inflow series of these reservoirs can encounter was analyzed. The result shows that the synchronous wetness-dryness encounter probability of the three inflow series is up to 46. 96%, and the probability that Panjiakou reservoir fail to compensdte Douhe reservoir and Yuqiao reservoir is about 30.2%.