南水北调东线工程运行的社会风险因子识别

Identification of social risk factors in operation of Eastern Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion Project

为识别南水北调东线工程运行的社会风险因子,将南水北调工程看作一个经济实体或社会单元,从而考虑社会对这个单元所造成的影响和损失。通过将等级全息建模方法(HHM)与鱼骨图相结合,形成改进的HHM建模识别方法,使该方法能够反映研究对象的过程和步骤,更有效地描述南水北调东线工程运行的客观面貌,并以此作为风险识别的工具,从单纯的社会风险和传导的社会风险这2个维度按等级层次识别了南水北调东线工程的社会风险因子共50条。

In order to identify the social risk factors in the operation of the Eastern Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion Project,the South-to-North Water Diversion Project was regarded as an economic entity or a social unit. Accordingly,the effect and loss of the unit induced by the society were discussed. The hierarchical holographic modeling (HHM) was combined with fishbone diagrams to generate an improved HHM for the identification of social risk factors. Thus it could reflect the process and approaches of the research object and effectively depict the objective situation of the operation of the Eastern Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The proposed method was employed as a tool for the identification of risks. The social risk factors in the operation of the Eastern Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion Project were identified in a hierarchical way of 2 dimensions,pure and conducted social risk factors.