城市旅游发展潜力定量研究——以中国14个沿海开放城市为例

Quantitative Research on the Potentiality of Urban Tourism Development——Taking the open coastal cities in China as an example

以中国14个沿海开放城市为例,从综合经济实力、旅游业发展水平、基础设施、生态环境、科教卫生5个方面定量化探讨城市旅游发展潜力。运用因子分析法,评估各城市旅游发展潜力,结果显示:上海、广州旅游发展潜力最强,天津、宁波、青岛、大连较强,其余城市较弱。各城市应该加强城市资源的整合,推动旅游业快速发展;加强区域联动,建设一体化旅游发展机制;注重挖掘旅游资源的文化内涵,加强基础设施建设力度。

This paper takes 14 open coastal cities in China as the study subjects and quantitatively explores the potentiality of Urban tourism development from five indexes ,such as the overall economic indicator, the level of tourism development ,infrastructure,the ecological environment,and the index of science and education and heahh. Using factor analysis,the score of each index is calculated with the mean squared deviation. The results show that,Shanghai and Guangzhou have the strongest potentiality for tourism development and in the future they will continue to maintain the dominant position. Tianjin,Ningbo,Qingdao and Dalian have stronger potentiality for tourism development and they take the leading and pulling role on the surrounding region tourism development. Ningbo makes great progress in tourism development and it has a bright future. The remaining eight cities have less potentiality for tourism development and must try their best.