矿井合理生产能力的决策与应用

Decision and application of mine rational production capacity

为了合理确定矿井生产能力,提出了基于工作面单产预测的矿井生产能力决策模型和基于可能-满意度方法的矿井生产能力决策模型。这2种模型在济三煤矿得到了成功应用。以工作面煤层地质条件开采工艺性综合评价为基础,构建了能综合反映"人-机-环境"三因素影响的单产预测新模型,对矿井未来要开采的工作面进行了可靠单产预测。根据预测结果,对满足矿井年产量的工作面接替方案进行比较分析,综合考虑煤层地质条件、开采技术等条件确定矿井的合理持续生产能力。采用可能-满意度方法,首先对影响矿井生产能力的单因素进行可能度或满意度分析;然后分类并合成矿井生产能力的可能-满意度曲线。通过曲线可得出影响矿井生产能力的关键性的制约因素;最后对这些制约条件进一步讨论和并合,以得出矿井生产能力的总可能-满意度及其所依赖的条件。研究结果表明:通过上述决策模型确定济三煤矿合理生产能力为650万t/a,比较符合济三煤矿近3 a的实际年产量;制约济三煤矿生产能力主要因素是断层、村庄压煤和厚煤层储量偏少。

In order to ascertain reasonably the mine production capacity, the mine production capacity decision models based on the eoalfaee one-output forecast and on possibility-satisfiability method were presented, and the two models were applied in Jisan coal mine. The first model was based on mining technology synthesis evaluation of the coalfaees coal seam geological condition, a new model to forecast the coal face production which can synthetically reflect the influence by three factors of the labor, machine and environment was built, the production of coalfaces mined in the future was forecasted, the coalfaces relay schemes were compared and analysed according to forecast results, and the rational production capacity of mine was ascertained considering coal seam geological condition, exploitation technology and so on. The possibility-satisfiability method was adopted in the second model. Firsdy, the factors affecting mine production capacity were analyzed using possibility-satisfiability method; secondly, these factors were further classified combination of the possibility-satisfiability curve of mine production capacity, and the key restraint factors affecting mine production capacity were discovered; finally these factors were further discussed and combined, and the total possibility-satisfiability of the mine production capacity and its depending conditions were obtained. The results show that, 6.50 million t/a, according to the mine annual output in recent 3 years, is the most rational production capacity of Jisan mine; and the main factors restricting Jisan mine production capacity are faults and coal seam occupied by villages and reserve of thick coal seam.