制造业上市公司财务失败预警实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Forewarning Model of Financial Failure of Listed Manufacturing Companies

采用主成分分析方法,选取沪深股市46家ST制造业公司及与之相对应的46家非ST制造业公司共92家企业作为研究样本,构建了用于预警制造型企业财务失败预警的主成分预警模型,并通过检验确定了预警模型的预警准确率。

This paper establishes a new model to predict the financial failure of listed manufacturing companies by referring to financial index and adopting principle component analysis. It defines ＂ST eompanies＂in Chinese Stock Market as ＂financial failure companies＂ and selects 92 companies （46 manufacturing companies and 46 non-manufacturing companies） as samples to build and test the principle component model for financial failure forewarning of listed manufacturing companies. Finally, the accuracy rate of the principle component model is determined through testing.