俄罗斯走出经济怪圈的路径选择

Road map for Russia to get rid of its vicious economic cycle

普京主政8年,在经济领域所取得的成绩斐然,但遗憾的是,迄今为止,俄罗斯还没有走出自己的经济怪圈。俄罗斯10年来的经济轨迹呈现出这样一个经济怪圈:看似经济增长了、发展了,但经济质量、经济结构和国际竞争力却在踏步不前,又回到了原点。普京和梅德韦杰夫都清醒地认识到俄罗斯经济的这一现象和致命弱点,并制定了走出经济怪圈的战略方针:从依赖型经济转向创新型经济。俄罗斯走出经济怪圈的战略方向是正确的,但是路径选择却存在着严重问题。俄罗斯希望通过国家投入、市场保护和鼓励创新这样的路径,实现摆脱资源依赖型经济而转向创新型经济的目标是难以实现的。

Under his eight-year rule,Putin made great economic achievements,but regrettably Russia has yet to get rid of the vicious economic cycle,which boils down to the fact that the past decade the Russian economy seemed to have grown and developed,but failed to step forward qualitatively,structurally and in terms of international competition capacity; it has actually returned to the original point of development. Both Putin and Medvedyev are clearly aware of such a Russian economic phenomenon and fatality. They have worked out a strategic principle to eradicate it by shifting from a resource-dependent economy to an innovative one. Their strategic orientation is correct,but the road map is beset with serious problems. It will be difficult for Russia to achieve the goal by increased state inputs,market protection and stimulation.