发展中国家粮食安全影响因素的理论分析

The Theoretical Analysis of the Influence Factors of Food Security in Developing Countries

笔者从宏观的国家(地区)层面和微观的个体层面分析了发展中国粮食安全的影响因素。在国家层面上,粮食供给的波动和粮食需求的变动是导致粮食不安全的原因;粮食价格、粮食生产和粮食流通的不稳定又影响粮食供给的波动;粮食需求的变化受到人口数量、收入水平、工业化、城市化进程以及粮食市场的发育状况等的影响。在个体层面上,个体的粮食获取能力(包括自身生产能力、购买力、以及获取粮食援助的能力等)以及粮食的可得性是影响其粮食安全的主要因素。

The paper analyzes the influence factors of food security in developing countries from the macro-level of country （region）and the micro-level of individual. At the level of country,the fluctuation of food supply and the alteration of food demand are the reasons of the food insecurity. The instability of food price, food production and food circulation is the reason of the fluctuation of food supply. The alteration of food demand is influenced by the number of population,incomes, industrialization, urbanization and the condition of food market. At the individual level, the individual ability to obtain food （involving the productivity of itself,purchasing power and the ability to obtain food assistance）and the access to food is the influence factor of individual food security.