国际贷款利率水平对我国贷款利率水平影响的实证检验

Empirical Test of International Loan Ratio's Impact on Chinese Loan Ratio

在开放经济条件下,跨国公司在全球进行融资时会比较各国融资成本,因此,各国的贷款利率之间存在一定的联系,各国利率之间存在内在联系。文章对美国国内贷款利率与中国国内贷款利率进行了协整分析,通过实证检验发现,由于中国经济实际开放性所限,中国国内贷款利率水平受国际贷款利率影响存在三个月左右的时滞。此外,在我国汇率改革之前,我国贷款利率与国外贷款利率之间关系微弱。但是,自从我国进行汇改之后,我国贷款利率与国外贷款利率之间关系紧密,两者之间存在格兰杰因果关系。

Under the open economic circumstances, transnational corporations will compare the finance cost when doing the global finance. As a reauct, there is some internal relationship between each country＇s loan ratio. Through empirical test, this paper compares American domestic loan ratio with Chinese domestic loan ratio, finding that Chinese domestic loan ratio has a three-momth lag influenced by the international loan ratio. Besides, there was a weak relationship between Chinese loan ratio and foreign loan ratio before the exchange rate reform. After the reform, the relationship becomes closer.