不确定条件下煤化工技术经济评价方法

Techno-economic assessment method under uncertainty in coal chemical industry

发展煤化工对保障我国能源安全、充分利用煤炭资源有重大的意义。但我国煤化工行业发展存在较大的不确定性。这种不确定性不仅体现在原料、市场的迅速变化和工程技术的发展趋势,也体现在环境政策和应对气候变化的约束性要求。本文介绍了不确定条件下的投资决策理论(real optionsan alysis,简称为ROA)的基本原理、不确定因素分析方法、建模和求解及其应用于能源利用技术投资领域的研究进展。在此基础上,结合我国煤化工产业发展背景,分析了该理论方法应用于我国煤化工领域相关投资决策和行业发展政策研究的必要性、可行性和应用前景。

To develop coal chemical industry would enable taking full advantage of China＇s coal resource, and has great significance for national energy security. However, huge uncertainty is faced by coal chemical industry, which is not only reflected by deepening market-oriented reform but also by constraint from policies regarding environmental and climate issues. This paper introduces the application of real options analysis （ROA） into techno-economic appraisal of energy utilization technologies, involving analysis of uncertain factors, modeling and solving techniques. Based on review of current research status, in combination with development background for China＇s coal chemical industry, the necessity and feasibility of application of the ROA theory is analyzed, indicating that the ROA theory has much potential for application.