中国能源-经济-环境(3E)协调发展状态的实证研究

Empirical study on the coordinated development of China's energy-economy-environment (3E)

本文创建能源-经济-环境(3E)综合发展水平指标体系,借助主成分分析法和模糊数学隶属度函数对中国3E系统协调度进行测算,结果表明:2000—2007年间,3E系统协调度平均为0.6860,处于弱协调状态;能源与经济处于轻度不协调等级;能源与环境属弱协调等级;经济与环境的协调度平均为0.4866,呈中度不协调状态。3E系统处在动态调整之中,系统总的协调发展趋势趋向好转,但距离稳定的优质协调发展目标还有较长距离。应通过建立3E协调发展的政策保障体系、完善绿色资本市场、建立国家级新能源基地等来进一步改善3E协调状况。

This article develops a comprehensive development index system of energy- economy- environment （3E）, and estimates the coordination level of China＇ s 3E system through principal component analysis and membership function of fuzzy mathematics. The results show that： from 2000 to 2007, the average level is 0. 6860, a weak coordination; energy and economy are at a mild incoordination level; energy and environment are at weak coordination level; and economy and environment are at a middle incoordination level with the average of 0. 4866. The 3E system is in dynamic adjustment. Its general trend tends to be better, but there is still a long way to go before it achieves the goal of excellent stable coordination development. To further improve the coordination of 3E, we should establish a policy system supporting their coordination development, improve green capital market, and set up national new energy bases etc.