我国货币供应量与经济运行弱相关的理性思考

The Contemplation on the No-Obvious Relationship between Money Supply and Economic Operation in China

大量实证研究表明,长期以来货币供应量中介目标与经济走势相背离。本文借助投资乘数效应、投资函数以及倾向需求函数三个相关关系前提,推导出货币供应量与国民收入关系曲线,并揭示出"货币供应量陷阱"。接着以这一模型为基础,在不同经济变量变动的情况下寻求"货币供应量陷阱"的破解之道;同时还对模型中未曾包含的其它影响货币供应量与经济运行关联度的因素加以补充解释;最后提出我国可能的货币政策中介目标选择。

Ample empirical studies show that for a long time the money supply intermediate goals go against the economic trends. This paper bases on money demand, investment demand and investment multiplier to build a simple economic model, and analyzes the underlying reasons of no-obvious relationship between money supply and economic operation. The paper also reveals the money supply trap in the economy. In the dynamic model we search for the possible way to escape the trap of low efficiency. It also discusses some other factors, which are not covered by the model. Then the paper puts forward some suggestions.