群体性事件情报预警困境的博弈分析

The Analysis of Difficulty in the Early Intelligence Warning of Massive Disturbances by Game Theory

在公安边防部门辖区内，群体性事件时有发生，成为影响辖区治安的主要因素。如何基于所掌握的情报，找出一种科学合理的情报分析方法成为边防部门亟待解决的问题。从博弈论的角度，建立模型，用数学方法进行求解，对公安边防部门与群体性事件的策动者进行博弈分析。

Nowadays, massive disturbance occurs frequently in the jurisdiction of the border control forces, which has become a major factor influencing the public security. But, many border control forces wouldn＇ t like to react to the early intelligence warning, usually, for the reason of keep things from worsening. This causes the passivity in the face of massive disturbance. Therefore, discovering a reasonable method based on intelligence analysis becomes an expectation. This paper establish mathematic model to analyze the interaction between border control forces and the bosses of backstage of massive disturbance on the point of the Game Theory to supply some reference.