金融危机与中国对外贸易政策和产业政策的思考

On the Influence of Financial Crisis and China's Response of Trade and Industrial Policies

美国次贷危机所引发的金融风暴,对实体经济产生的影响主要表现为西方主要国家实体经济的衰退。尽管本次金融风暴是以房地产市场的信贷坏账为起点,但由于其影响到西方整个金融制度,特别是金融创新的制度,因此要从总体上使西方经济完全恢复,还需要相当长的时间。然而其实体经济部分还是有希望在较短的时间内恢复起来的,其余部分则有赖于世界经济的整体恢复。因此,中国经济的对外依赖部分在短期内也有望大部分得到恢复。要注意的是,当我们的经济也同样采取一些抵消金融风暴和实体经济负面影响的措施时,需要对这次金融风暴和实体经济衰退的可能影响做出正确估计,否则我们采取的政策可能出现这样的情况:短期内,过于急迫,从而是急于求成:长期内,力度又过大。这些偏颇的出现,可能对我国经济的持续增长产生负面、增加其波动性的影响。所以,我们的产业结构调整一定要客观、适度,根据自己利益最大化原则来制定对外贸易政策才是比较客观的态度。

Subprime Crisis in the US and the consequent worldwide Credit Crtmch significantly impact the real economy in the world that most of the Western industrialized countries steppes into the recession. Although the Credit Crunch starts from failed payment on housing mortgage, it will take a long time for the Western industrialized countries to recover economy fully since the whole financial institutions axe almost undenuined in this crisis. However, the performance of real economies may recover normally in a shorter time. Therefore, most parts of China＇ s economy which relies on the external economies may recover in the short period. China should estimate properly the impacts of the financial crisis and the corresponding depression on real economy to avoid precipitant measures in the short run and over applied stimulation in the long rtm, which may affect negatively the sustainability of the economy growth. We should make policy to accomplish maximize profits which is objective and suitable.