流动性陷阱:现实、产生机理与政策

The Liquidity Trap:Reality,Productive Mechanism,and Policy

流动性陷阱限制了中央银行利率工具的使用并极易诱发严重的经济金融问题。探讨流动性陷阱产生机理的一种新解释,提出如果货币当局长期执行以泰勒规则为代表的反通胀战略以稳定真实利率的货币政策,通胀预期的变动会对通货膨胀产生超调,形成爆炸性路径,最终名义利率降到流动性陷阱水平。根据这种产生机理提出着眼于真实经济的逃离流动性陷阱的政策建议。

The liquidity trap limits the use of interest rate as the central bank＇s tool,and thus may induce serious economic and financial problems.This paper explores a new explanation to the original mechanism of the liquidity trap.It proposes that,if the central bank in a long term makes any monetary policy according to the Taylor＇s rule,the inflation will be overshooting,and at last the nominal interest rate will decline to the level of the liquidity trap.In the end the paper will give some policy suggestions based on real economy to escape liquidity trap.