人民币贷款利率预测的实证分析

Empirical analysis on the prediction of RMB loan interest rates

利率作为金融市场的核心要素,构建利率走势模型对利率进行预测具有重要的意义。首先对一年期人民币贷款利率的影响因素进行分析,利用协整检验方法对利率与宏观经济、货币供应、价格水平、国际市场环境之间的关系进行了研究。实证结果表明:尽管在短期一年期贷款利率与宏观经济、货币供应、价格水平、国际市场环境之间存在波动关系,但是从长期来看,它们存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。

The interest rate is the core elements of the financial markets. Building interest rates model to predict interest rates has important significance. First, the implication factors are analysed for the one- year RMB lending rate, cointegration test method is adopted to study the relationship between interest rate, macroeconomic, money supply, price level and the international market environment. The empirical results show that： although in the short term, one - year lending rate has fluctuant relationship with the macroeconomics, money supply, price level, and the international markets, in the long run, there are long - term stable equilibrium relationship.