1961～2008年临沂降水变化特征的气候分析

Climatic Analysis of the Precipitation Variation Characteristics in Linyi City from 1961 to 2008

利用线性倾向估计、累积距平、M-K检验和小波分析等方法对临沂市的降水时间序列进行了多方面分析。结果表明,临沂市降水时间序列总体上表现为下降趋势,以秋季降水比较明显;降水时间序列存在明显的趋势突变点和阶段性,但这一趋势在各季节的降水时间序列中表现不同;降水时间序列存在多种不同的时间尺度变化,年降水时间序列中存在15年和30年的时间变化尺度,夏季和冬季的降水时间序列也存在15年的时间变化尺度,春季和秋季降水时间序列存在6年和9年的时间变化尺度,在四季的降水时间序列中都存在3年的时间变化尺度。

Using the methods of linear tendency estimation, the cumulative departures, MK test and wavelet analysis and other methods, the time series of precipitation in Linyi were analyzed from many aspects. The results showed that the precipitation time series in Linyi City showed an overall downward trend and that of summer precipitation was most obvious. The precipitation time series in Linyi City had obvious trend of mutation and stage and the trend was different in the the precipitation time series of different seasons. The precipitation time series in Linyi City had a wide range of time scales of changes. There were 15-year and 30-year time scale of the annual precipitation time series. There was 15- year time scale of changes in the summer and winter time series. There was 6-year-and 9-year time scale of changes in the spring and autumn precipitation time series. There was 3-year time-scale of changes in four-season time series.