东北冬季气温异常与全球前期海温的关系及可预测性分析

Analysis of the Relationship between the Winter Temperature Anomalies in Northeast China and the Global Preceding SST and Temperature Prediction

对1959～2002年东北地区均匀分布的74个测站冬季(12～2月)月平均气温资料进行EOF分解,并利用EOF1时间系数和1958～1999年网格月平均海面温度场(简称为GISST)海温资料(1°×1°)场资料,探讨了东北冬季气温异常与前期全球海温的关系,确定了具有显著影响的关键时段的关键海区,并进一步探讨了前期关键区海温对冬季气温异常的可预报性。结果表明,冬季气温与前期海温具有较显著、较稳定的相关关系,冷、暖冬预测可以把选定时段和海区的海温作为一个重要的影响因素,且误报率很低。

The monthly average temperature data in winter （from December to February） of 74 stations distributed in Northeast China from 1959 to 2002 were decomposed by means of EOF. Based on EOFI time coefficient and SST data from 1958 to 1999, the relationship between winter temperatare anomaly in Northeast China and the globe preceding SST was discussed. The key sea areas in the key periods with significant influences were determined. The prediction of winter temperature anomalies was further studied with key areas＇ preceding SST. The results showed that there was a more significant and stable relationship between winter temperature and preceding SST. SST in certain period and area could be used as an important influence factor for the forecast of winter temperature anomaly and the mistake of predietion was very seldom.