双重防范:美国对俄地缘战略及其发展趋势

Double Preventions:The US Geostrategy for Russia and Its Future

冷战结束以来,美国对俄地缘战略不仅出于对俄罗斯的压制,还有利用历史积怨和现实不信任使自主性不断增强的欧盟与复兴潜力巨大的俄罗斯相互制衡的考虑,借此继续确保美国在欧洲安全事务上的主导地位。为此,美国间或采取"挑衅防卫"的方式激起俄罗斯的强烈反应,从而迫使欧盟不得不依附美国防范俄罗斯的潜在威胁。欧盟虽然对俄罗斯心存疑虑,但反对在安全上过分刺激俄罗斯,以免给欧洲造成不必要的"第三方风险"。

The geostrategy of US for Russia is not only to weaken an old enemy, but also to make use of historical rancor and current distrust to balance the strongly reviving Russia and the increasingly independent EU, which is aimed to maintain the American primacy on European security. If necessary, America perhaps deliberately use provoking defense to evoke Russia＇ bigoted emotion and radical reaction, which make EU have no choice but to be more dependent on US＇s protection against Russia＇s latent threat. Although EU is suspicious of Russia and willing to cooperate with America to prompt Russia to evolve in the direction as what the Western expected, EU opposes American provoking Russia excessively in security to avoid the third part risk. So, the reaction of Russia and the attitude of EU toward US geostrategy will have a deep influence on its practice.