中国秸秆生物质发电区域适宜度分异评价

Differentiation evaluation on regional suitability of crop straw resources utilization in China

秸秆发电是我国发展生物质能产业的重要组成部分,区域适宜度评价是决定其合理布局的关键。在综合分析秸秆发电产业发展影响因素的基础上,运用层次分析法和多目标线性加权函数法从耕地资源潜力、秸秆原料供应、市场需求状况和产业发展成本四个层面共选取了耕地资源总量、耕地资源量波动水平、秸秆资源总量、秸秆产量波动水平、用电量、用电量增长率、秸秆资源密度和人均GDP等8个指标建立了中国秸秆发电区域适宜度评价指标体系和评价模型,结果显示,我国各省区秸秆发电适宜度存在较大差异,综合适宜度较高的是河南、山东、安徽、江苏、河北、黑龙江、吉林等我国中部和东北粮食主产区;综合适宜度较低的是北京、上海、天津、浙江等东部经济发达区和青海、宁夏、甘肃、陕西等西北农牧区;其余区域秸秆生物质发电的适宜程度一般。

As the main composition of biomass energy industry,the research on suitability of crop straws power generation has great importance in the development of renewable energy industry in China.Based on the analysis of influence factors,8 indexes including farmland amount,farmland amount change,crop straw quantity,crop straw quantity change,power consumption,power consumption increase rate,crop straw density and labor cost were selected to evaluate the regional suitability of crop straw power generation in China according to the data of China Statistical Yearbook from 1989～2008.The final results indicated that there existed great difference in the suitability of crop straw power generation in China,the most suitable regions of crop straw power generation was middle and northeast China,including Henan,Shandong,Anhui,Jiangsu,Hebei,Heilongjiang and Jilin,both of which were traditional agriculture regions;The suitability of east and northwest China were much lower due to the lack of enough crop straw materials.By dividing China into five regions named highly suitable region,suitable region,normal region,subsuitable region and unsuitable region,the suitability of crop straw power generation in China was clearly illustrated.