一次暴雨空报和预警失误分析

Analysis for Some Mistakes of Rainstorm Forecast Warning

通过分析2009年5月17到20日的天气背景、对比分析清远本站和郴州站的探空资料,以及清远本站的湿度、风等要素,找出北部地区和南部地区在同一环流背景下,所产生量级差异较大的降水原因。得出郴州站对北部地区的强降水指示意义在一定程度上大于清远本站;而清远本站的单站资料对清远本站强降雨指示意义明显。精细分析天气系统位置,可提高强天气在同一地区内的精细落区预报。雷达资料对本站的强天气预警信号发布具有重要指示意义。

Through the analysis of weather background from May 17^th to 20^th, comparative analysis of information from Qingyuan, Chenzhou and the sounding stations, as well as the humidity, wind and other elements in Qingyuan Station, the reasons for the magnitude difference in the northern and southern regions of circulation in the same context are identified. Chenzhou Station shows more for heavy precipitation in the northern region to some extent; and Qingyuan single-station information is of obvious significance for itself. Fine analysis of the location of weather systems can increase district forecast in the same area. Radar data have an important significance for strong weather warnings.