基于AHP法的高校设备采购风险定量分析

本文将高校设备采购风险管理的具体过程整合为风险识别、风险评估和风险监控三大步骤。在风险识别中,本文尝试运用工作结构分解图(WBS)将高校设备采购分为采购前、采购中和采购后三个阶段,再细分成若干子任务;然后,运用专家调查法识别该项目的风险类型,在此基础上使用头脑风暴法编制风险因素列表,从而提高风险识别的效率。在风险评估中,运用AHP分析法构造项目风险递阶层次结构图,然后建立风险矩阵并排序,从而将定性分析和定量分析相结合,为有效地监控设备采购风险提供科学依据。

In this paper, the process of risk management of equipment purchase in institutions of higher learning is divided into three phases such as risk discernment, risk evaluation, and risk monitoring. During risk discernment, equipment purchase in institutions of higher learning is divided into three phases such as before purchase, among purchase, and after purchase by WBS chart, thus it is sub-divided into amount of child-tasks. Then, the risk types of this project are discerned by expert investigation method. After that, we draw up the risk factor lists by Mind Storm Method to increase efficiency. During risk evaluation, we work out the structure charts of risk hierarchy process in the project; afterwards we set up risk matrixes and compositor to combine qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, and scientific knowledge is provided to monitor risks of equipment purchase effectively.