经济危机下航运运价与美国GDP的回归分析

Regression analysis between US GDP and shipping freight rate under the economic crises

经济危机下美国经济的倒跌产生了巨大的"乘数效应",航运市场跌入低谷。航运运价是反映航运市场冷热程度的方向标,而GDP是反映经济状况的重要标志之一,本文旨在从美国GDP分别和BDI、CCBFI的相关性来解释美国经济对全球航运业及中国航运业的影响程度。本文对两运价指数进行方差分析和差异性比较,分别将国际波罗的海综合运费指数(Baltic Dry Index,BDI)、中国沿海(散货)运价指数(China Coastal Bulk Freight Index,CCBFI)与美国GDP进行相关分析和回归分析,最后指出美国GDP的上升有可能成为一个很好的切入点来带动航运业的走势,较之美国经济与全球航运市场的关系,美国经济与中国航运市场的相关性更紧密。关注美国政策调整给美国GDP带来的变化,给中国航运市场的运作者提供了战略决策依据。

Under the economic crises, the slumping US economy catastrophically slows down the shipping market. The shipping freight rate is the signal of ups and downs in shipping market, while GDP serves as the landmark of economy. The impact of US GDP on the domestic and world shipping market are explained, while the correlation between GDP and BDI, CCBFI is analyzed. Variance analysis, regression analysis, and correlation analysis are also processed. In conclusion, growth in US GDP may help to drive the shipping market, since our findings show that US economy is more closely related to Chinese market when compared with global market. Thus, Chinese shipping market players should pay highly attention to the US macro-policy adjustment, which supports their decision-making process.