土地价格、房地产信贷规模对住宅价格影响的实证分析

Empirical Study on the Influence of Land Price and Real Estate Credit Scale on Housing Price

房地产业的发展高度依赖金融市场的信贷支持和土地的供应。选取1997～2008年浙江省国内房地产业的时序数据,运用协整分析方法对土地价格、房地产信贷规模和住宅价格之间的相关关系进行实证分析。结果表明,土地价格、房地产信贷规模与住宅价格有相关性,房地产开发贷款和个人住房贷款规模对住宅价格走势具有不同的影响。最后,根据定量分析结果,提出促进我国房地产市场健康发展的政策建议。

The development of real estate industry is highly dependent on the credit of finance market and land supply.In this paper,an empirical analysis,which is based on the data of years from 1997 to 2008,on the relationship between the national real estate credit scale,land price and housing price is made.The results show that there is a relevancy between them,while the loans for real estate development make a different influence on the fluctuation of housing price compared with that influence made by loans for individual housing. In the end, the paper gives some suggestions for the healthy development of real estate market.